Current Price: $342.75•10/26/2026 • Eulerpool
Ticker:ISIN
Created by (on)
Clemens(27/10/2026)
Story / Thesis
Apple’s investment case rests on a large, loyal device ecosystem, recurring Services revenue, and its ability to keep customers upgrading across iPhone, Mac, iPad, and wearables. Services can support durable earnings and help offset slower or uneven hardware cycles. Apple’s June 2026 quarter showed strong momentum, with revenue up 16% year over year and records for iPhone, Mac, and Services, though the reported gross margin also benefited from tariff refunds. The central risk is that Apple’s size makes sustained high growth harder: replacement cycles, competition, regulation, and dependence on the iPhone could limit revenue and earnings expansion. The model’s Base case—14% near-term EPS growth, slowing to 7% long term—recognizes that normalization, but still requires substantial continued execution. The Bull case depends on stronger growth and a premium 30× exit multiple; the Bear case reflects weaker growth and multiple compression. At the model’s stated 10% discount rate, the Base fair value of $172.88 is well below the $342.75 current price, implying that the shares look expensive under these assumptions. The Bull value of $368.59 is only modestly above today’s price, so even that optimistic scenario offers limited price appreciation over the modeled decade before dividends. Valuation conclusion: the business remains high quality, but this model does not support buying at the displayed price unless you expect materially stronger earnings growth, a higher exit multiple, or both.
Bear
$98.25
-71.3%
8888
Base ★
$196.06
-42.8%
8888
Bull
$307.90
-10.2%
8888
Price vs. Valuation Range
Discussion
Not financial advice. All views are the opinion of the entry's creator. Do your own due diligence before investing.